Warren
Buffett says that overpopulation is a problem.
He’s
right, but only if people can avoid dying. Without that tricky little undertaking,
human beings face extinction.
To
sustain the population, the number of children born to the average woman during
her lifetime, called the fertility rate, must be 2.1.
In
agricultural societies, children are assets. They help grow the crops and
provide for the parents’ old age.
But
as people flock into cities and gain prosperity, children become liabilities.
They get in the way and cost a ton of money. Armed with pensions, not to
mention, the pill, women produce fewer babies.
Oh
yes, the world’s population, now 7.6 billion, is still growing and may reach 9
or 10 billion. But according to the CIA, the fertility rates of developed
nations are below the 2.1 sustaining rate: The U.S. and UK 1.88. European Union
1.61, China, 1.60. Japan 1.41.
The
government of Singapore provides cash and benefits worth up to $12,000 for each
of a woman’s first and second child and up to $20,000 for each of the third and
fourth child. Singapore’s fertility rate nevertheless stands at a rock-bottom 0.83.
With
rates of about 4.5, the fertility of many African nations is still high. But as
Africans become prosperous, the fertility rate will fall. Unless human beings can
circumvent dying, they will eventually go the way of the dodo bird.
