Monday, December 17, 2018

Two Serious Economic Misunderstandings

    Most denizens of the government and the press believe that deflation (falling prices) results from a weak economy. To counteract this, the authorities try to keep interest rates low. But unnaturally low interest rates make borrowing too easy and often results in excessive debt. 

Deflation during the Great Depression was indeed caused by a weak economy. But that was an exception. Usually, deflation results from economic strength, when the supply of goods grows more rapidly than the supply of money. Prices fall, and the economy thrives, helping the poor most. The government should stop fearing deflation and quit enabling the build-up of debt.  

Another misunderstanding: The reduction of tax rates, referred to as “tax cuts,” is believed to cause government revenues to fall, increasing the deficit. 

The “tax-cut” label, implying a reduction of government revenues, is misleading. When tax rates are reduced, government takes a smaller share of peoples’ incomes, which stimulates the economy. More people find work. Income rises, and government revenues go up, not down. Assuming government spending remains level, the higher revenues cut the deficit. 

When corporate tax rates were reduced at the beginning of 2018, spending rose substantially. It was this, not the lower tax rates, which increased the deficit. 

Cutting tax rates is good policy. This year’s reduction and the cancellation of damaging regulations are why the unemployment rate is the lowest in fifty years. The government should cut tax rates more, cancel more regulations, and, oh yes, spend less.